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Friday 30th April - Today's Rates & Market News

Published: 30 Apr 2021

Markets

GDP

 A very quiet week to say the least for EUR/GBP, which has traded in its tightest range since December 2017. In turn, the cross appears to be coiled up for a breakout and in my view, risks appear to be shaping up for more upside for the following reasons:

1)    Good news largely in the price for GBP with the UK’s vaccine advantage diminishing. Yesterday, Germany vaccinated a record 1.1% of the population in one day.

2)    GBP heading for its worst month on a seasonal basis.

3)    Political tail risks amid next week’s Scottish Election likely to see GBP exposure reduced.

There are some positives for the Pound to consider. Next week, the BoE will meet and there is a good chance that the central bank could announce a tapering of QE purchases, given that the current pace of purchases is likely to see the asset purchase facility target reached by mid-August, the time at which the next MPR takes place. Elsewhere, UK/German 5Y real yields also point to lower EUR/GBP.

On the technical front, key resistance at 0.8720-30 remains intact and continues to curb rallies. Should EUR/GBP close 0.8735, this opens the door towards the 0.88 handles. On the downside, good support is situated at 0.8660-70, with the 50DMA below at 0.8617.

 

USD

 The Federal Reserve not only held rates and stimulus unchanged, but Chairman Powell also looked to dispel any fears that any normalization is ahead.

Despite the relief for risk assets to the Fed keeping its support in place – and subsequent boost of earnings and Biden talking stimulus – the S&P 500 still would not advance.

The Dollar would not hold back the fundamental tide with USDCAD and USDJPY most impressive – will US 1Q GDP help stabilize the Greenback?

FX Daily Analysis Europe – 30th April 2021

Today’s Rates

GBP>EUR – 1.1494

GBP>USD – 1.3908

EUR>USD – 1.2099

GBP>CAD – 1.7088

GBP>AUD – 1.7918

GBP>SEK – 11.677

GBP>AED – 5.1098

GBP>HKD – 10.802

GBP>ZAR – 20.004

GBP>CHF – 1.2651

 

  Today’s Calendar 

·       EUR      Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q1)

·       CHF       SNB's Chairman Jordan speech

·       EUR      Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)(Apr)

·       EUR      Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)(Q1)

·       EUR      Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Apr)

·       EUR      Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)(Q1)

 

  Today’s Highlights

  • EUR/USD dips below 1.21 after German GDP misses with -1.7%
  • GBP/USD pressured under 1.3950 amid dollar strength
  • SNB’s Jordan: Monetary policy goal is more important than pay-outs.
  • Forex Today: Dollar bounces ahead of busy end to April, eurozone GDP, US inflation data stand out

(https://frank-exchange.com/)

 

This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited/Manor House Foreign eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy. No copy of this document can be taken without prior written permission.

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John Hall

Firm: Frank eXchange
Country: United Kingdom - England - England

Practice Area: Foreign Exchange

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